Comparing and Forecasting using Stochastic Mortality Models: A Monte Carlo Simulation

Project Time and Cost Forecasting using Monte Carlo simulation and Artificial Neural Networks

The aim of this study is to present a new method to predict project time and cost under uncertainty. Assuming that what happens in projects implementation which is expressed in the form of Earned Value Management (EVM) indicators is primarily related to the nature of randomness or unreliability, in this study, by using Monte Carlo simulation, and assuming a specific distribution for the time an...

Comparing Regression, PLS, and LISREL Using a Monte Carlo Simulation

This study uses Monte Carlo simulation to compare three relatively popular techniques, with findings that run counter to extant suggestions in MIS literature. We compare multiple regression, Partial Least Squares and LISREL under varying sample sizes (N = 40, 90, 150, and 200) and varying effect sizes (large, medium, small and no effect). The focus of the analysis was on determining how frequen...

Comparing stochastic volatility models through Monte Carlo simulations

Stochastic volatility models are important tools for studying the behavior of many financial markets. For this reason a number of versions have been introduced and studied in the recent literature. The goal is to review and compare some of these alternatives by using Bayesian procedures. The quantity used to assess the goodness-of-fit is the Bayes factor, whereas the ability to forecast the vol...

Forecasting Hotel Arrivals and Occupancy Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy is an important component in hotel revenue management systems. In this paper we propose a new Monte Carlo simulation approach for the arrivals and occupancy forecasting problem. In this approach we simulate the hotel reservations process forward in time, and these future Monte Carlo paths will yield forecast densities. A key step for the faithful emulati...

Stochastic Simulation,monte Carlo Methods and Applications1